Working Papers:
“Drying Up Trust? Extreme Weather and Differential Disaffection in Brazil and Mexico” (SSRN draft)
Abstract: Does extreme weather decrease political trust in Global South contexts? Conventional wisdom posits that citizens are retrospective and attentive, and that trust in politics ought to depend on government assistance to those affected. But this model overlooks how high socioeconomic inequality might complicate belief updating. Instead, I argue extreme weather generates political disaffection within specific socioeconomic strata, driven by normalized non-responsiveness and clientelistic politics affecting the less affluent. I examine this theory with public opinion data from over 12,000 individuals in Mexico and Brazil, spanning 2006-2019. I find that extreme droughts, floods, and exceptionally high temperatures diminish political trust in local government and democracy among affluent citizens. In contrast, the trust of less affluent individuals remains largely unaffected by extreme weather, as my theory predicts. These findings highlight the importance of considering preexisting inequities in the interplay of extreme weather, government responsiveness, and political disaffection in Global South contexts.
“Aiding or Shaming in Climate Politics of the Global South” (link to OSF draft)
Abstract: Middle-income countries face substantial pressure from wealthy governments to reform their environmental policies and practices. Few countries have faced greater foreign criticism than Brazil, with its large population and stewardship over most of the world’s largest rainforest. What are the effects of this foreign pressure on Brazilian citizens’ opinions regarding environmental protection? In a pre-registered survey experiment (n = 1003), I probe the effects of prompts regarding foreign aid and shame from abroad on Brazilians’ attitudes toward an array of climate policies. I find that foreign pressures have limited overall effects, except that shame significantly decreases support for a carbon tax. Pre-registered heterogeneity analysis suggests that aid generally increases support for climate policy among environmentally conscious citizens. But for subjects who do not prioritize the environment, against expectations I find that aid significantly decreases support for climate policies and shame, paradoxically, sometimes increases such support. The results largely indicate that foreign pressures land very differently for distinct types of citizens based on their prior levels of environmentalism.
“Linking International Organizations and Domestic Policymaking: the Role of Bureaucratic Lobbying” (link to draft)
Abstract: The extent of influence of international organizations (IOs) in member state’s policymaking is contested, as are the potential channels of influence. I argue domestic bureaucrats play a primary role in disseminating IO norms to achieve policy goals and signal technocratic expertise. Contrary to current perspectives on bureaucratic autonomy, this argument emphasizes national legislatures as key sites to flex autonomy and promote IOs. But bureaucrats are strategic, and limit references to IOs to avoid alienating political actors who champion anti-globalism. However, public servants are inclined to reinforce each other during legislative hearings, even when led by nationalist and anti-globalist politicians, paradoxically resulting in increased references to IOs. The argument is supported using a text-as-data approach with 1500 public hearing from Brazil’s permanent Senate Commissions from 2013 to 2022. In addition, I draw on evidence from interviews and ethnographic research in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies and Senate. The findings suggest an overlooked aspect of bureaucrats’ political influence. Despite rising anti-globalism, I show how IOs can remain relevant for domestic policy even when country participation at IOs is inconsistent.
“Environmental State Dismantalism: Elite Competition and Challenging Capacity in Brazil” (contact for draft)
Works in Progress:
“When the River Runs Dry: Institutional Responses to Climate Change-Induced Hydropower Shortages in Developing Countries” with Johnathan Guy (UC Berkeley) and Ishana Ratan (UC Berkeley)
“Unequal Disasters and Uneven Response: Mapping and Explaining Climate Vulnerability in the Global South” with Mats Ahrenshop (Oxford), Federica Genovese (Oxford), and Hayley Pring (Oxford)
“Ballots, Bullets, and Trees: Election Timing and Violence Against Environmentalists”